Recently, concerns about US inflation have strengthened, especially the speech of US Treasury Secretary Yellen is more worthy of attention.She not only expressed a misjudgment review of past inflation, but also pointed out that the future level of U.S. inflation will be unbearably high, which means that it has very important benchmarking significance and purpose.Because her background is the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and the difficulty of the current policy and equilibrium structure of the United States is the lack of financial resources, the bailout plan and the willingness to reduce the deficit are facing a dilemma.Therefore, the "accumulation of money" by the US government is an unprecedented major issue and focus for Treasury Secretary Yellen.Therefore, the appearance and meaning behind Yellen's talk about inflation are the true meaning of the current US government and policy.Based on the accumulation of long-term research and the thinking of follow-up observation, I believe that the goal of public opinion on inflation in the United States is to raise interest rates, which in turn drives the investment attraction of US Treasury bond yields to rise. core.The policy emphasis reflected inside and outside the words of people and public opinion is very clear and thorough policy guidance.
The first point of thought: the difference between the traditional interpretation of the national debt yield and the modern appeal.With the process of the Fed raising interest rates, the global bond market is favored, especially the yield of long-term government bonds is the focus of the current financial market, and the advantages of long-term US bonds are particularly eye-catching.On the one hand, based on the status and prestige of the U.S. dollar, coupled with the rising interest rate of the U.S. dollar, the liquidity, yield and safety of U.S. Treasury bonds are still the first choice for investment.Especially in the comparison of risk-free assets between the yields of government bonds of major developed countries, along with the market asset pricing basis of the US dollar benchmark interest rate, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is used by the financial market as the basis and anchor for pricing, and it is more important to the US dollar interest rate. A weather vane that has a significant impact on the exchange rate.Since August last year, the rise in U.S. bond interest rates means that other asset yields have risen along with the rise in long-term Treasury bond rates, including the unavoidable appreciation of the U.S. dollar. As a result, the corresponding decline in asset prices in the financial market and the correction period have caused the rise in U.S. stocks and the decline in U.S. debt. The logic is prominent, and the policy and government preparation and design are very superb and mysterious.However, treasury bond investors are usually commercial banks. The purchase of treasury bonds by commercial banks means that they obtain loans from the central bank. Therefore, when the yield of treasury bonds rises, the cost of commercial banks will rise, and there will be less lending funds.As a commercial bank and the world's largest seller, that is, the seller of the US dollar, the Federal Reserve's self-selling and self-aggrandizement is unprecedented.The Fed has led the market to trust the US economic recovery from the current rise in the yield of US Treasury bonds, which is quite different from the traditional theory of being sold off. It even implies a combination of US currency and finance, which is a clever trick that the market is puzzled by. where.During the period, the rise of US Treasury bond yields was parallel to the epidemic, and the foundation was the credibility and hope of the Treasury bonds endorsed by the US economy.
The second point of expectation: the original intention of the Fed to increase interest rates faster is to strengthen the currency for fiscal relief.The Fed's interest rate hike is the top priority, especially the recent US Treasury Secretary Yellen's concern about inflation highlights her monetary policy experience and prestige choice.The reason why Yellen is qualified to be the US Treasury Secretary or the arrangement of an American person is the ingenious handwriting of the US policy mix. After all, the combination of fiscal shortage and monetary accumulation is the superb means and path for the United States to break through the predicament.Therefore, Yellen's speech focused on the misjudgment and key strategies of US inflation. The essence is that out of the authority and experience of monetary policy, generous support and stimulation of the Fed to raise interest rates is the ultimate intention.The US inflation data to be released soon is of great significance. The current market expectation is a decline, but if it is not difficult to find through the trend of international oil prices, inflation may not be so downward in May.Because the price of oil futures in New York has been on an upward trend in May, especially in the second half of the month, the rally has pointed to a high of $120, and future expectations are more directly pointed to a higher level of $130-150.If U.S. inflation is down or a tactic, it is not the authenticity of the data.In particular, the United States is currently striving to realize its own strategic design path, which must be applied with the energy of falsehood, and strives to promote the original intention of the policy to alleviate the risk of structural unevenness. The focus is on the urgent need of the United States to promote the return of financial resources by interest rate tools.Yellen's inflation is just an appearance, and its real intention is to use the interest rate orientation of the Fed's monetary tools to fully return to the prestige and power of the US dollar.Because the Fed's interest rate hike enhances the charm of the US dollar, that is, a valuable currency will highlight the charm of hedging and appreciation. On the contrary, the value of the euro is unbelievable under the benchmark, and it is impossible to even evaluate the value prospect and the future of the mechanism.Between the two sides of monetary instruments is still the US dollar interest rate to help the US dollar exchange rate strengthen the hegemonic currency pattern and dominance mechanism.
The third risk: The Fed's interest rate hike and the global pursuit are misaligned into a liquidity trap.At present, the Fed is more certain to raise interest rates, and at the same time, the central bank interest rates of other major currencies are tightening the tightening of currency and raising interest rates. Is it true that global liquidity is shrinking?Is the future liquidity trap real?It's hard to tell right now.In particular, the current world economic structure and situation are quite different. It is a fact that the competition between power and power is sharp, and even the situation of strangulation competition is very sharp.The latest World Economic Outlook just released by the World Bank showed that global economic growth fell further to 2.6% from a second revised 3.2%, implying that an unhealthy monetary tightening and increased financial risks are a core element of the liquidity trap.Especially under the competition of the dollar and the euro, the economic growth of the United States and Europe is expected to be 2.5%. However, the economic reality is that the domination of one country’s currency and the split of the currencies of many countries are obvious. In addition, the disparity in interest rates is still the biggest disaster and detonation minefield of the European liquidity trap.Among them, the investment transfer and speculative speculation caused by the interest rate effect will exacerbate the imbalance and even division of Europe, including the appreciation of the ruble under the Russian war situation, Russia's self-confidence, or all signs of future disasters.After all, it is rare for any country to be "ecstatic" under war, and whether Russia is strong enough to deal with a financial crisis is an untrustworthy point.Therefore, the result of the Fed's interest rate hike in the euro area is a passive interest rate hike. On the one hand, the U.S. dollar has a distinctive feature of imported inflation, and the inflation elements are mainly oil and energy rising; The interest rate lag and the US dollar interest rate will inevitably become the main speculative currency, which is self-evident for the good and bad for the euro, and Russia is a means to detonate the fuse.The current global focus is on the Fed raising interest rates, but the ultimate risk may be in the euro.After all, the US economic recession is dominated by commercial speculation. On the contrary, politics and the government are optimistic and deny the economic recession, which is enough to show that the design of the liquidity trap is clear and precise.
The new economy with the characteristics of modern economy will inevitably make the meaning and extension of national debt more advanced and complicated, especially the ego is the key point of the critical period and the support level, and the core means or operational ability is the embodiment and performance of the currency status and power.Currency competition is the current trap of tightening currency liquidity, and whoever falls into it is the critical period and game period of long-term competition and benchmarking planning.It is expected that the devaluation of the US dollar will find opportunities to show its power, and ensuring and protecting the safety of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike will be the top priority.On the contrary, the appreciation of the euro indicates that the risk of subversion is rising, and the settlement of the euro is not far away.
