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The international oil price is high, and the domestic refined oil price may be lowered for the first time in two months next week.


2022-06-23 19:47:46

Recently, the international oil price has dropped sharply.On June 22, the price of WTI crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.04% to close at $106.19 per barrel. It fell 7% during the session and fell below $102 per barrel, setting a new low since May 12; London Brent crude oil Futures fell 2.54% to settle at $111.74 a barrel, after hitting $107.03 during the session, the lowest since May 19.

As of the press release on June 23, the price of Brent crude oil futures in London fell further by 1.99% to US$109.52 per barrel, and the price of WTI crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell further by 2.06% to US$104 per barrel.

The first financial reporter noticed that the last major correction in the trend of international oil prices was last Friday.

On June 17, the Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point rate hike, the largest single rate hike since 1994.Affected by the global central bank's "interest rate hike" and the possibility of economic recession, as of the close of the day, the price of WTI crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.03 to close at $109.56 per barrel, a decrease of 6.83%; Lent crude oil futures fell $6.69 to close at $113.12 a barrel, or 5.58%, announcing the "end" of the "seven-week winning streak" between New York and Brent oil prices.

ICIS global crude oil analyst Barney Gray said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News: "The sharp drop in international oil prices last week was mainly affected by interest rate hikes. The largest increase), the United Kingdom and some other European Central Banks have also announced interest rate hikes.”

In its latest daily crude oil review, Societe Generale Investment (UK) believes that the new round of decline in international oil prices on June 22 was due to investors' concerns that the central bank's sharp interest rate hikes and the possible economic recession caused by the new crown pneumonia suppressed the demand for fuel.

US President Biden's promotion of gasoline tax cuts and the unexpected increase in weekly crude oil inventories of the American Petroleum Institute (API) are also the driving factors driving this round of downward international oil prices.On June 22, Biden delivered a speech at the White House, calling on Congress to approve a 90-day moratorium on the collection of federal gasoline taxes, and hoped that states would take corresponding gasoline tax relief measures.A reporter from China Business News checked the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and found that as of the week of June 17, API crude oil inventories increased by 5.607 million barrels to 411 million barrels, the largest increase since the week of April 8, 2022.

"Only after insufficient refining capacity and other supply-side problems are resolved, the soaring trend of gasoline prices can be eased in the long term." JPMorgan Chase analysis said that Americans' intervention measures to lower gasoline prices will offset some of the factors that inhibit consumption, and instead push High gasoline prices.Interventions currently being discussed include cutting petrol taxes, adjusting biofuel blending requirements and restricting fuel exports, which instead encourage people to drive more, and petrol prices will only fall if demand falls.

It is worth noting that in the early morning of June 23 (Beijing time), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued a statement saying that it would not release a weekly crude oil inventory report on June 23 as planned due to a "system problem". , the weekly oil inventory data scheduled to be released will be delayed until at least next week.

"Whether the 'supply and demand gap' in the international crude oil market has eased is a difficult question to assess." ICIS global crude oil analyst Barney Gray said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News: "The current international crude oil market The main concern is that the market will lose as much as 3 million barrels a day of Russian crude under the impact of sanctions on Russia. But this is not the case and the tightening of supply in the market may be 'exaggerated'. With China and India buying in large quantities Russia’s crude production is being supported by low-priced Russian crude, while the West is buying additional crude from elsewhere.”

"From the perspective of international crude oil supply, there is not much room for 'OPEC+' to increase production, because only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have some spare capacity." Gray told "The output of some member countries is far below the quota. We temporarily lost as much as 1 million barrels per day of crude supply from Libya this week. In the entire recent oil price 'crisis', I think the role of 'OPEC+' is very passive, with little ability or willingness to 'step in'."

Hu Qimu, chief researcher of Sinosteel Economic Research Institute, said in an interview with the first financial reporter today: "This round of sharp correction in international oil prices is mainly due to the sharp increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in June, the tightening of US dollar liquidity, and speculative capital from bulk commodities. Withdrawal from the market. Although the international oil price has corrected, it is still at a high level compared to the starting point of this round of rising.”

"On the supply side, due to the continued impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the factors of supply shock have not been resolved; on the demand side, although there are claims that the U.S. economy may fall into recession, with the further recovery of Chinese demand, it is possible to pull the international Crude oil and other commodities prices. So from the perspective of supply and demand, it is expected that international oil prices may rebound.” Hu Qimu said.

According to the relevant provisions of the "Petroleum Price Management Measures", the continuous decline of international crude oil will directly lead to the corresponding adjustment of domestic refined oil prices.

The current round of domestic refined oil price adjustment time is currently determined at 24:00 on June 28.According to the statistics on the 7th working day of the oil price adjustment cycle, it is predicted that the cumulative reduction of oil prices will be 190 yuan/ton. After converting to a rise, the retail prices of gasoline and diesel are expected to drop by 0.15 yuan/to 0.16 yuan/liter.

The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission previously stated publicly: "According to the relevant provisions of the "Petroleum Price Management Measures", the high retail price of domestic refined oil (gasoline, diesel) is adjusted every 10 working days according to the changes in crude oil prices in the international market. The price adjustment is mainly based on the comparison of the average value of international oil prices in the 10 working days before the price adjustment and the average value of the 10 working days before that."

The first financial reporter noticed that since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 11 adjustments, including 10 increases and 1 decrease. It has been more than two months since the last domestic oil price decrease (April 15).

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